Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Medium-term picture (6-12 months): Correction of the EUR/USD is deepening. The medium-term trend is changed to down. For the last 3 months Euro down more than 1600 points, reaching the level of may 2009 - 1.3500. If we take into account long-term channel fluctuations of the exchange rate (see red border on the chart), then the pair is committed to the lower border of the area 1.2700/50, while the upper limit is reached course in November 2009 at the level of 1.5139, is 2400 points higher in the range of 1.5150/5200. The upper boundary of the triangle 2008-2009, which was broken up in 2009 before achievement of annual highs, again broken and this time down, and now serves resistance. Descending fluctuations of the pair stacked in cool-channel down oscillations (see dashed blue), in which reduction target could be achieved by the end of March 2010. Indicator IADI also confirm most вероятнось further decline (even after any correction up from current levels).
Scripts in March: the Nearest resistance is channel boundaries and formation in the area of 1.3700/3800. Next - 1.4200/4500, which can be the first foot. Ongoing support - 1.3400/3500, and further the goal of 1.2700. The situation is such that the first half of March can be a side or a correction, however, then you will still see the new wave of decline of the Euro.
Trade ideas: Interesting for sale from 1.3700 and above. Stop not below 1.4200, goal - 1.27.
Medium-term picture (6-12 months): Pound left in disgrace, and now the medium-term trend GBP/USD turned in downward until moderately downward.
Index SPY (112.60)
Current situation: Moving averages (EMA) with a period of 13 and 26 indicate an upward trend. Index SPY tested the long-term EMA (26) in the area 106,80 and continued growth.
On the daily chart MACD-histogram grows higher than «0», which indicates the strength of the «bulls». Stochastic re trying to get up in the overbought zone, at the same time, the potential of growth of the indicator is saved.
Scenarios for February: we expect the continuation of the rising trend, so we recommend to consider only shop in the area of moving averages on the daily chart (now 110,50-111,0) with stop below 108. For those who still holds purchase, recommend you to close some positions at current levels, while remaining near the upper border of the price channel on the daily chart (now 113,80).
Crude oil Light (80.15)
Current situation: Another attempt to fall below a moving average on the weekly chart also failed. The upward trend remains in force. On the daily chart the Stochastic escaped from overbought zone risks correctional decline saved.
Scenarios for February: do Not rule out that oil prices will not only test the moving average on the daily chart in the area of 77, but to fall below to 74,5 where recommend purchase with stop below 69.
Current situation: the Trend is ascending. Rates tested the long-term EMA (26) and continued growth. Divergence on the daily chart, and the rise in prices above the moving average of the daily chart increases the upward momentum. We recommend to consider only the purchase.
Scenarios for February: clear signals, aggressive players can open purchase with no significant drop in prices (for example, in the area of 1120). Conservative players recommend to open long positions in the area of moving average (now 1110), with a stop just below 1090 and target near the upper border of the price channel (сейчас1140-1145).